cheltenham festival 2009

[the card guard kid]

ok the festival is just over 4 weeks away so i though i would start a thread off where we can post up any tips or fancies or post up any whispers we have heard. i will start it off with 2 horses i strongly fancy to win.


champion hurdle
Binocular - eves

total class this horse finished 2nd to captain cee bee in last years festival opener and has trained on leaps and bounds. one of my festival bankers and at evens i think is a great bet.

triumph hurdle

starluck - 6/1
really strongly fancy this horse and his form has progressed all season and he will be spot on for race.

also like the chances of forpadytheplastererer in the irish ind arkel and becantista in the supreme novices hurdle.

one horse has caught my eye in the grand national betting and thats cloudy lane. an out and out stayer who has mixed it with the best in his career and i think the 33/1 ante post is way too big.

one question for discussion after denmans race yesterday the bookies now have madison du berlais between 5/1 and 10/1 for the gold cup. what do you think of the horses form and price. im undecided as dont think denman was given too hard a race and after being off track for nearly a year he would have needed the race so maybe madison was a bit flattered to win. however he also beat air force one just before xmas and in both races has proved he has good mid race travelling speed and can stay on at end of race, an asset deffo needed to win at cheltenham. can he possibly beat both kauto star and denman in the gold cup????

[Trip Jacks Breheny]

definatley with u with binocular, great horse and great price at the mo. i still think denman has a great shout 4 the gold cup even after his poor showing at kempton and despite the bookies taking him on (think hes 4s now 4 the gold cup kauto 5/4?). plus rubys on him i think 4 the gold cup.
forpaddytheplasterer...thats the horse sum of the sunderland owners own isnt it? always in red n white? hope that wins then! ha

[Nutflush]

Kasbah Bliss, World Hurdle. Won't be beaten, currently around 11/4, been backing it since July, biggest price I have is 13/2.

Ferdy Murphy is basically a fiddling tw*t (should know as have shares in a horse with him) and he will have one lined up for a handicap plot somewhere during the week. My guess would be Naiad du Misselot in The Jewson Novices Chase. This won The Coral Cup last year at The Festival and has not looked as good over fences, but it wouldn't surprise me if Murphy has been holding him back to keep his handicap mark down. He has also ran him on left handed tracks a couple of times and he definitely prefers right handed courses.

The best place to look at form for Cheltenham is always the previous year's festival, course and distance form is paramount at Cheltenham.

I normally go for the full 4 days but just going on the Wednesday this year - flaming credit crunch!

[the card guard kid]

Kasbah Bliss, World Hurdle. Won't be beaten, currently around 11/4, been backing it since July, biggest price I have is 13/2.

Ferdy Murphy is basically a fiddling tw*t (should know as have shares in a horse with him) and he will have one lined up for a handicap plot somewhere during the week. My guess would be Naiad du Misselot in The Jewson Novices Chase. This won The Coral Cup last year at The Festival and has not looked as good over fences, but it wouldn't surprise me if Murphy has been holding him back to keep his handicap mark down. He has also ran him on left handed tracks a couple of times and he definitely prefers right handed courses.

The best place to look at form for Cheltenham is always the previous year's festival, course and distance form is paramount at Cheltenham.

I normally go for the full 4 days but just going on the Wednesday this year - flaming credit crunch!

like kasbah bliss and totally agree with the murphy comments. will be there tues, wed and thurs so pm your mobile and we can meet up if ya want on wed

[the card guard kid]

wow for those who really fancy binocular at cheltenham there is some 2.66 still on betfair

[the card guard kid]

just heard a very interesting interview on the racing channel with harry findley who is joint owner of denman. he has stated that the horse has been pulled out of the grand national and he has also stated that after his kempton run denman has shown no adverse effects ffrom the race. however he then went on to say that denman is not the horse he was last year and that the gold cup has left its mark on the horse as it was a tortuous pace and he was legless in last furlong. he further went on to say that he would not back his horse even each way this year and stated his money was on Kauto star to win and neptune collonges each way. this is the guy who for 2 months before the gold cup last year was telling everyone to back it as it was going to win and he has a reputation for saying it as it is. his closing statement when asked how he felt was 'we will have to see what denman turns up on the day, if he gets there'. read into that what you will but my advice is to lump on Kauto star now as even the 5/4 will look massive now if the above is true

[Trip Jacks Breheny]

haha, thats enough to change my mind! kauto it is then. i guess i was just hanging onto loyalty since i backed denman last year! that 5/4 wont be there much longer altho i dnt like backing horses ante-post.

[Trip Jacks Breheny]

binocular trading at 7/4 on betfair!

[Jimmy Chipmunk]

Binocular has looked pretty awesome this season though at them prices i wont touch it as i still remember it struggling up the hill last season,i was pretty impressed with michael flips which will be running in one of the novice hurdles and is a decent price and also spot on ferdy the fiddler comments

[Scott]

Aye, Binocluar is a horrific price considering he's shown love for flat, galloping tracks.

Mate gave me a shout for Ainama for the Supreme Novice last night. Of course he's wanting to chuck his cash monies away on a Kauto/Binocular/Punchestowns treble, so yeah.

I'm liking the look of Mad Max, but I think he's going to be a far, far better chaser. He's a Denman-like machine and maybe he'll suffer the same fate as Denman in whichever of the races he takes in.

Gotta love Ferdy. Only other man that could plan a Chelter coup like him was Pipe Sr.

[Tired]

Love Cheltenham and the Jumps, not really a fan of the Flat other than they're great days out drinking in the summer, love Ripon, great track.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is my favourite race of the entire year and Master Minded will not be beaten (terrible price) he's a geniune wonder horse imo

Binocular
Master Minded
Kauto Star

For a "big three" treble for me.

Might have a word on a few closer to the time ;)

[the card guard kid]

wow just checking betfair(for those who dont know most of the bookies prices these days are driven by betting exchanges) and denman is now out to 6/1 for the gold cup - probably a good indicator that something is deffo not right with the horse. this im my opinion leaves the race wide open for kauto star to walk it. as my previous thread told ya i had lumped on kauto at 3.63/1 on betfair prior to denmans race with a view to lay it off if kautos price contracted. however to date he is still trading at 3.1/1 - 3/25/1 and as such since denmans race i have been lumping more on at regular intervals as once gold cup day arrives his price can do nothing but shorten allowing a guarenteed profit whoever wins the race.

[Nutflush]

Did ya see Kasbah Bliss on Saturday CGK? Was outstanding at Haydock, now in to 7/4 for orld Hurdle. My bets at 6 and 7/1 look canny now.

Acca on Master Minded, Binocular, Kauto and Kasbah in the big 4 races?

[the card guard kid]

Did ya see Kasbah Bliss on Saturday CGK? Was outstanding at Haydock, now in to 7/4 for orld Hurdle. My bets at 6 and 7/1 look canny now.

Acca on Master Minded, Binocular, Kauto and Kasbah in the big 4 races?

aye kasbah was awesome and looks unbeatable in my eyes. would not touch master minded at 2/5 even though he almost a shoe in.

[Barearse]

Slightly OT, but got a tip of Just five today in 3.05 at Southwell. It's supposedly going to romp it, but the odds aren't great. Your call

[GazWalker]

Slightly OT, but got a tip of Just five today in 3.05 at Southwell. It's supposedly going to romp it, but the odds aren't great. Your call

Well it didn't come top 3 so thats not a very good tip like :p

[Barearse]

I hate horses. Some bloody tip wasn't it?! My bad

[GazWalker]

I hate horses. Some bloody tip wasn't it?! My bad

How much did you lose :rolleyes:

[Barearse]

Just £30, nothing too bad. Last time I trust a source of my brothers tho

[the card guard kid]

dont feel too bad at least its a super fit horse cos its still running

[K6suited]

Shinrock Paddy in the Bumper im told.... Aint got a clue bout horses, last bumper horse i backed fell, so maybe best not to back it...

[the card guard kid]

as the festival gets nearer one horse i really like after some studying and race watching is Karabek think some 5/1 ish still aboot. not gonna post anymore fancies up now as we are gonna have a tipping comp !!!!!!!!!!!

[the card guard kid]

ok people just cos i love ya i am going to post this up. in the first race of the festival on tues the favorite has now become a bit of a 'hot pot' and his odds have shortened a lot over last few days. the horses name is cousin vinny and it won the festival bumper at last years festival. my adv is do not back it. cant find too much wrong with its form but what puts me off is that leading irish bookmaker paddy power has put an offer on the race stating it will refund all losing bets placed on the race if cousin vinny wins. now by the time the race goes off they will have taken in the region of £1.5 million pounds on other horses in that race and basically they are offering everyone a bet to nothing on other horses if the favorite does win. when have you ever known a bookie to give away money!!!! so my advice side with the bookie and dont back cousin vinny cos they must have a good reason to offer this money back offer(i.e they dont think it will win for some reason!!!!!)
bear in mind cousin vinny is and irish horse and paddy power is an irish bookmaker who has close ties with the horses owners so make your own minds up on this!!!!!!!!!!

[Scott]

I just don't fancy it, anyway ;)

Let's hope the Irish lump on it big time, send it off nice and short and I'll happily lay it.

TBF, though, proven course form, which obviously helps and Cheltenham. It's a weak Supreme Novice, as well, but I wouldn't want to be taking a short price on anything, especially one that's had a strange prep.

I might have an e/w dabble on Ainama, just because I think it'll get the strong pace a bridle horse like that needs and should have his stamina come into play coming up the hill. However, my luck with bridle horses is shocking, so he'll probably do a Harchibald, come swinging on the bridle over the last, get asked to make his winning run and then get done on the line...probably by Cousiin Vinny ;)

And I'm still laying Binocular. I'll wait until the JP money goes on it, though.

[mugpunt]

ok people just cos i love ya i am going to post this up. in the first race of the festival on tues the favorite has now become a bit of a 'hot pot' and his odds have shortened a lot over last few days. the horses name is cousin vinny and it won the festival bumper at last years festival. my adv is do not back it. cant find too much wrong with its form but what puts me off is that leading irish bookmaker paddy power has put an offer on the race stating it will refund all losing bets placed on the race if cousin vinny wins. now by the time the race goes off they will have taken in the region of £1.5 million pounds on other horses in that race and basically they are offering everyone a bet to nothing on other horses if the favorite does win. when have you ever known a bookie to give away money!!!! so my advice side with the bookie and dont back cousin vinny cos they must have a good reason to offer this money back offer(i.e they dont think it will win for some reason!!!!!)
bear in mind cousin vinny is and irish horse and paddy power is an irish bookmaker who has close ties with the horses owners so make your own minds up on this!!!!!!!!!!

Really interesting Steve. I personally had the horse down as having a major chance. Was cruising when u/r last time. That and the fact it is a weak supreme novice race (what price this years winner being odds on for the champion hdle next year) and the beast has won at the festival before. But yes bookies give buggar all away for nowt and PP probably one of the shrewdest operators. Might have to miss the race and double up on the arkle!!

[Koyte]

ok people just cos i love ya i am going to post this up. in the first race of the festival on tues the favorite has now become a bit of a 'hot pot' and his odds have shortened a lot over last few days. the horses name is cousin vinny and it won the festival bumper at last years festival. my adv is do not back it. cant find too much wrong with its form but what puts me off is that leading irish bookmaker paddy power has put an offer on the race stating it will refund all losing bets placed on the race if cousin vinny wins. now by the time the race goes off they will have taken in the region of £1.5 million pounds on other horses in that race and basically they are offering everyone a bet to nothing on other horses if the favorite does win. when have you ever known a bookie to give away money!!!! so my advice side with the bookie and dont back cousin vinny cos they must have a good reason to offer this money back offer(i.e they dont think it will win for some reason!!!!!)
bear in mind cousin vinny is and irish horse and paddy power is an irish bookmaker who has close ties with the horses owners so make your own minds up on this!!!!!!!!!!

one more way to look at this because 500 million pound is going on bets this week , if paddy power gets 10,000 new punters on his site to register, they will stay for the full week just like saying 30 pound free bet , so not as cloak an dagger as you think unless your a cynical cockney kidda

[the card guard kid]

one more way to look at this because 500 million pound is going on bets this week , if paddy power gets 10,000 new punters on his site to register, they will stay for the full week just like saying 30 pound free bet , so not as cloak an dagger as you think unless your a cynical cockney kidda

big word down here is its not gonna win --- you have been warned

[Tired]

My lays of the day

2:40 STAR OF MOHAISON......Far too much weight, no horse rated 150+ has won this race in 26 years, 11st 12lb over 3m on GS ground, 3rd Favourite, no chance, will never win, my lay NAP

3:20 BINOCULAR....only one 5yo has one in ages and that was last year, an excellent renewal and at a very short price, it's worth taking on imo.

Good Luck


CGK:
A John Francombe tip thats excellent, go to the parade ring, any horse thats sweating between it's legs will NOT win 99% of the time, it something I always look out for when at the track and it's won me cash in the past.

[the card guard kid]

My lays of the day

2:40 STAR OF MOHAISON......Far too much weight, no horse rated 150+ has won this race in 26 years, 11st 12lb over 3m on GS ground, 3rd Favourite, no chance, will never win, my lay NAP

3:20 BINOCULAR....only one 5yo has one in ages and that was last year, an excellent renewal and at a very short price, it's worth taking on imo.

Good Luck


CGK:
A John Francombe tip thats excellent, go to the parade ring, any horse thats sweating between it's legs will NOT win 99% of the time, it something I always look out for when at the track and it's won me cash in the past.


an excellent piece of adv that i also apply to ladies as well!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tired]

[/SIZE][/COLOR]


an excellent piece of adv that i also apply to ladies as well!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

hahahahahahahahahaha

:D

I'm hearing good things about CAROLES LEGACY in the 4:40 race E/W @14/1 with any bookie who'll gimme 4 places ;)