25/50NL - Flush draw and TP on the turn

[Mark Trett]

This is a spot I find myself in quite a bit. Even though I know I should I find them so difficult to fold.

What are you doing in this spot?

PokerStars Game #38365697174: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50 USD) - 2010/01/18 20:51:52 WET [2010/01/18 15:51:52 ET]
Table 'Baetsle X' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: looyoou ($51.25 in chips)
Seat 2: Boeken ($50.50 in chips)
Seat 3: P0K3RBRAT ($49.25 in chips)
Seat 4: marc69 ($54.95 in chips)
Seat 5: spades540 ($47.90 in chips)
Seat 6: balugbug ($41.05 in chips)
Seat 7: danimito ($57.25 in chips)
Seat 8: Sephiroth80 ($77.45 in chips)
Seat 9: T3zuka777 ($78.35 in chips)
marc69: posts small blind $0.25
spades540: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to P0K3RBRAT [5h Ah]
balugbug: folds
danimito: folds
Sephiroth80: folds
T3zuka777: folds
looyoou: folds
Boeken: folds
P0K3RBRAT: raises $1 to $1.50
marc69: calls $1.25
spades540: calls $1
*** FLOP *** [2h 6d 4h]
marc69: bets $1
spades540: calls $1
P0K3RBRAT: raises $4 to $5
marc69: calls $4
spades540: folds
*** TURN *** [2h 6d 4h] [As]
marc69: checks
P0K3RBRAT: bets $11
marc69: raises $37.45 to $48.45 and is all-in

Am I always behind here? Could it be a draw and or just repping the Ace?

[pads1161]

Pre flop is fine.

One tip that I heard about flop play is when people donk, just count it as a check and act as you normally would, obviously with the caller you have to raise more if you elect to raise so flop is fine. Your obviously planning on getting it in v donk better if he comes OTT yeah?

Depending on reads (i.e aggression factor - not sure if you have a hud yet) I can sometimes find a check behind on the river implying some good pot control which will get a lot of missed draws to stab at on the river leaving you with a simple call/raise depending if you hit a heart and it sucks when you get c/rai as you have TPNK.

It looks like villain does have some kind of turned two pair, maybe A6/A4. However you do normally have 13-18 outs here so can never be in a horrible spot and a small % of the time you are ahead.

[Mark Trett]

Yeah with nut FD and gutter ball I'm happy to play for stacks OTF.

No HUD, no reads.

[bendystash]

Reads would be helpful, but without them the turn raise seems like an odd thing to do as he cant really be repping a big ace after bet/calling on the flop, only explanation is he has indeed turned two pair or has a really badly slowplayed set or something, i doubt he's going for fold equity after the aggression you have shown thus far. I do reckon a small part of his range is spazzy bluffs, thinking the ace is a terrible card for you, but a fairly slim possibility imo. Obviously its horrible to have to fold a hand like this when the turn improves your hand but there's no guarantee that anything but a heart is an out.

Theres a good argument for flatcalling with the nut flush draw in a multiway pot, both because it keeps drawing hands which can pay you off (weaker flush draws, certain straight draws) in the pot, and also helps with pot control so you can get out with little invested when you miss. However i do think this example with the gutshot in addition to the NFD is too strong a hand to be flatting with on the flop as you have so much equity, just sucks that you ran into an unpleasant spot.

[Brenos]

Villain dependant. I'm going to assume fit-or-fold fish here after the donk bet. Ag Factor <2? To answer your question, yes you are always behind here. Always. It sucks that you have equity in the hand but calling off is slightly -EV here no doubt.

NB you're 9 tabling FR with no HUD? Being able to see villains AGF, and at a click his c/r turn % would help here. But even VPIP/PFR figs would help me formulate a better plan for the turn. For eg betting small? You crush all draws so a flat isn't scary. This also may induce a minraise which you obv call.

However this is plain speculation. Poker is read dependant and at your volume you want to increase this edge with some information on villain.

[mulhuzz]

I think you see 67 here quite a bit. Honestly.

The spazzy part of his range is pretty large I guess. I think we probably expect him to 3 bet A9/AT+ against a single button open preflop, maybe a little tighter caus he has the BB to act after.

It's tough to say what to do here, although he can definitely have a FD.

The other option is that he has A4/A2 (he must bet more with A6 otf, surely) and you have a lot of outs. You have almost evens on your money too. Whilst I know you're thinking 'call', there are better spots, and you can fold here.

Preflop = standard
otf = 'check' behind (call the $1) or raise more. Don't get suckered into having to bet $11 on the turn and having to fold when crai'd.
Turn = check behind, you have some showdown value if you don't improve, but you're unlikely to be ahead of anything that raises you and aren't likely to be flatted (i.e. there's not a lot of value, I don't think).

Having said that, you pot the turn and he shoves. Do you give him credit for 77/88/99 thinking he can get you off a similar holding when the Ace falls?

That aside, pass. There are better spots, and in a vacuum you have no way of knowing if you're ahead. You're certainly never WA/WB though (unless he also has a FD, then you're WA...)

Rambling cut short:

1. Bet less than the pot on the turn or check behind. (smaller bet = better price if you need to make flush to win)

2. Don't play in a vacuum. Get a HUD.

3. Vacuums suck. Get a HUD.

[omahaha]

http://propokertools.com/simulator/simulate.jsp?g=he&b=2h+4h+6d+as&d=&h1=ah5h&h2=22,44,66,a6,a4,a2,53,a3,AJ,At&h3=&h4=&h5=

really poor range by me, but this seems like a call

you need 33% (pot odds) to call so this looks like a call to me

[mrmagoogle]

i call all day, behind or not, im drawing to the nuts
i must point out tho, i havnt made a single good decision in about 2 weeks

[Mark Trett]

Well in the end I called it off. He had of course made Aces up on the turn with Ad4d. I figured I was behind but couldn't fold. Looking back I think i'd probably play the turn differently but happy with the rest of the hand. Still not sure if i'm getting the right price to call it off in the end?

Yeah I 9 table without HEM. HEM is a fkn nightmare, I hate it. Had some guy from HEM support take over my laptop yesterday evening via TeamViewer for over 2 hours trying to install that PostgresSQL thingy without success. I don't think I'll ever get it sorted out!

I think if I'd had some info on him on HEM it would of made this decision easier.

[ImaKetMonkey]

allways check the turn behind, just no reason to bet it now you paired your A, You should be looking to get to showdown cheap unless you make yr flush of course.